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Risk assessment of low temperature disaster in winter for facility agriculture in Henan Province
LE Zhangyan, SHI Minghua, LI De, HUO Zhiguo, DU Zixuan, TAN Yanjing
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2022, 40 (4): 667-676.   DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2022)-04-0667
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The purpose of this study was to improve utilization rate of climate resources and reasonably optimize layout of winter facility agriculture in Henan Province. Based on daily minimum temperature data from 113 national meteorological stations during 1981-2018 in Henan Province, the mathematical statistics method was used to calculate standard deviation of minimum temperature in winter and climatic probability, frequency and occurrence intensity of different low temperature disaster indices. The low temperature risk index of facility agriculture was constructed by using the equal weight method. The low temperature risk levels of facility agriculture were classified using the optimal clustering method of ordered samples combined with low temperature disaster data, and the risk assessment was conducted using the risk level combined with land-cover data. The results show that the climatic probability and occurrence frequency of low temperature disaster (less than or equal to -5 ℃ ) in all parts of Henan Province are more than 0.80, so it is not suitable for development of small plastic arch sheds, and it is not suitable to use single-layer plastic greenhouses for facility agricultural production. The climatic probability and occurrence frequency of temperature less than or equal to -10 ℃ in both Xinyang and southern Nanyang are less than 0.20, it is suitable for development of plastic greenhouses. The climatic probability and occurrence frequency of temperature less than or equal to -10 ℃ in Hebi, Anyang and Puyang are all more than 0.80, so in these regions solar greenhouses should be developed to ensure crop growth in facilities. In the plastic greenhouse development area, Gushi County and Shangcheng County of Xinyang are mild risk areas for low temperature disasters, most of Xinyang, parts of Nanyang and Zhoukou are moderate risk areas, and all other areas are severe risk areas. In the solar greenhouse development areas, Puyang, Anyang and parts of Hebi are areas with high risk of low temperature disasters. Therefore, the low temperature disaster risk of different levels in Henan Province in winter has a certain regional pattern. Arrangements on planning of facility agriculture should be done in different regions according to local low temperature disaster risks.

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